To test for crowding effects of Absolute Momentum strategies employed by CTAs, the author explored and found significant returns for Absolute Momentum strategies during "turn of the month" days. The hypothesis is that during such days, CTAs would have to trade up their positions to put their new inflows to work in markets, temporarily pushing prices in their favour.
For more than 100 years since 1880, Absolute Momentum strategy has delivered consistent and positive returns with low correlation to traditional asset classes each decade. This is an update to the original Fall 2012 paper due to availability of additional historical data which allowed AQR to extend the research to 1880 and increase the number of assets from 59 to 67.
The paper proposed a futures based replicator for the Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index. Timing the individual four factors used in the replicator improved risk adjusted returns.
Absolute Momentum strategies have the potential to generate positive returns across all interest rate environments, including a rising interest rate environment.
Trend following effects have been very stable and consistent across four asset classes (commodities, currencies, stock indexes and bonds) over the last two centuries.